Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Headed Towards NBA Finals Rematch

Two of the oldest teams in the league are headed toward an epic Finals rematch from last June, as both teams continue to show why they are the class of the league.  Last year, the San Antonio Spurs coasted through the Western Conference playoffs, sweeping two series en route to The Finals, while the Heat dominated the first two rounds before outlasting the Pacers in seven games to face the Spurs.  The 2013 NBA Finals ended up as one of the most memorable championship series of all-time, with the Spurs coming within 28 seconds of winning it all.

The Spurs style of play has dominated the rest of the league since the team drafted Kawhi Leonard in 2011 prior to the lockout-shortened season.  By their standards, the team underachieved from their last championship in 2007 until they drafted Leonard in 2011, having been ousted in the first round twice (including to eighth seeded Memphis in 2011) and being swept in the second round by Phoenix in 2010.  Since Leonard arrived, the Spurs have won at least 70% of their regular season games each of the past three years, have swept four different postseason series, and have gone 32-14 in the postseason through Monday's Game 4 at Portland.

Leonard has sparked the resurgence in the team, often guarding the opposing team's best player and becoming a rapidly fearsome offensive force.  You could make a compelling MVP case for Leonard; this season, the Spurs went 8-8 without Leonard and 54-12 with him in the lineup.  San Antonio outscored opponents by over 11 points per game with him on the court.  He does an exceptional job of playing within the offense and he's field goal percentage has improved every year, culminating with a career best 52.2% this season.  Unbelievably, he has not received a SINGLE technical in his entire three-year career, despite guarding some of the most physical players in the league on a nightly basis.

Despite the team's brilliance over the past three seasons, San Antonio is still searching for its first championship since 2007, when LeBron James was still with the Cavaliers.  They blew opportunities the past two seasons.  Having a commanding 2-0 lead in the 2012 Conference Finals against OKC (and winning the first 10 games in the playoffs that year), the Spurs faded and lost the final four games of the series to the up-and-coming Thunder.  Last year, the Spurs had a five-point lead with 28 seconds left in Game 6 and allowed the Heat to miraculously come back and take the game and series.  They have put themselves in position to make another run at the Finals, with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, something they did NOT have last year.  Will they finally reach the top of the mountain this year? Time will tell, but they are extremely experienced and have some added motivation to finish the deal.

Until someone knocks them out, though, the NBA will still go through the two-time defending champion Miami Heat.  This is LeBron James's fourth year with the team and his chemistry with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh has continued to grow.  Even though the Heat have played in three straight Finals, LeBron has looked better than ever and he is making a strong case to become one of the greatest players ever.  His jump shot is now a strength and he used a wide array of post moves on his way to 49 points in a statement win in Brooklyn on Monday night.

In fact, since James joined Miami, he has played his best when the team has needed him most. First, 2011 ECF vs top-seeded Chicago, James made his final four shot attempts in Game 2 with his team trailing in the series then went on to lead an improbably comeback in Game 5, scoring the game-tying three then the ensuing go-ahead basket to send the Heat to the NBA Finals.  In Game 4 of the 2012 East Semifinals against Indiana with the team trailing 2-1, James displayed a masterpiece with 40 points, 18 rebounds, and 9 assists. The Heat went on to win the series 4-2.  In Game 6 of the 2012 ECF against his archrival Boston with the team facing elimination, James scored 45 points and grabbed 15 rebounds. In that Game 7, he followed up with 31 points and 12 rebounds, as the Heat needed James heroics to advance to the Finals.  In the 2012 NBA Finals against OKC, with the team down 1-0 in the series, James had 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists as the Heat went on to win the series 4-1.

Last season, with the series tied 2-2 in the 2013 ECF against Indiana, James erupted for 25 points in the third quarter, as the Heat blew out the Pacers.  In Game 7 of that series, it was deja vu as James scored 32 points, and the Heat won by 23 points to send Miami to a third straight Finals appearance.  The 2013 Finals were unique to James, as the team NEVER had a series lead until they won it all in Game 7.  In Games 2, 4, and 6, James had an all-time block of Tiago Splitter and two different 30-point games.  In Game 7, LeBron saved his best for last, as he connected on FIVE three-pointers en route to a 37-point effort and a second straight Finals MVP.

LeBron showed Monday night that this is still his league and someone needs to beat him four times to have a shot at the championship.  Since he joined Miami, it has only happened once in 13 opportunities; the 2011 NBA Finals, when James admittedly played the worst series of his life.  He has exponentially grown since that letdown and has become arguably the most lethal two-way player in NBA history since Michael Jordan.  As long as he's playing, Miami will always have a chance to beat anyone, even when Bosh, Wade, or the rest of the supporting casts are having off nights.  James is historically consistent.  He has scored at least 22 points in every game this postseason and has exceeded 27 points in six out of eight games.  The last time he scored under 20 points in a loss? March 12 against Brooklyn, when he "settled" for 19.

Both the Spurs and the Heat are remarkably healthy at this stage of the postseason, despite going through an arduous playoffs in 2013.  These are the two most experienced teams left in the postseason and have not shown any signs of letting up.  If they continue to play to this level through the end of this month, we could very realistically be looking at a rematch of last June's championship.  That itself would make this a historic rivalry, along the lines with the Bulls-Jazz in the late 90's and Celtics-Lakers in the 80's.  It's about time we had an NBA Finals rematch.

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