Padres and Astros Have Played and Pitched Exceptionally Well After Trading Aces

On July 31, 2009, the day Jake Peavy was dealt from the San Diego Padres to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for four players, the Padres were 42-62, which was last place in the NL West. With an unproven manager, an relatively unknown pitching staff, and a mediocre farm system, the Padres seemed to have little hope of contending for the foreseeable future. Likewise, on July 29, 2010, the day the Houston Astros dealt ace Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies for three prospects, the Astros stood at 42-59, which ranked near the bottom of the entire National League. Similar to the Padres, the Astros had little hope of contending in the near future, especially with no notable superstar on its roster. However, trading away the aces happened to be the best thing that happened to these two franchises in a long time.

Following the Peavy trade, the Padres finished the 2009 season 33-25 to reach 75 wins for the season. While that may not sound like a significant amount, the Padres displayed remarkable improvement in the final two months of the season. The Padres had the third best team ERA in the major leagues over the final two months of the season.

Though Peavy has been a dominant pitcher over the past five years in San Diego, he was becoming extremely injury prone and took up a substantial portion of the San Diego payroll. In fact, Peavy alone made $15 million in 2009. The rest of the team made a combined $29 million. With Peavy gone and the playoffs out of reach, the Padres used the final two months of the 2009 season to develop young pitchers Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard, and Mat Latos. Those three pitchers developed nicely for the Padres, as they each averaged at least 6.0 K/9 over the final two months of the season.

The Padres carried over the momentum they generated at the end of 2009 into the 2010 season, as they currently have the best record in the National League at 76-49. The Padres have won with pitching and defense, as they own the best team ERA and FIP in the majors. LeBlanc, Richard, Latos, Jon Garland, and Kevin Correia have formed one of the best starting rotations in baseball, as they have combined to yield an average of fewer than three runs per game. The bullpen has been even better than the starting pitching this season, as Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Tim Stauffer, and the rest of the San Diego relievers have the best xFIP among all major league teams at 3.12. To put that into perspective, the next best relieving team, the Atlanta Braves, have a team xFIP of 3.56.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros have also improved considerably since trading their ace, Roy Oswalt. They have gone 15-10 since trading Oswalt and have just taken the first three games of the four game series against Oswalt’s current team, the Philadelphia Phillies. Like Peavy, Oswalt was making $15 million per year and was taking a large chunk of the team’s payroll. Without Oswalt and with the team out of contention, the Astros are replicating San Diego’s strategy of developing young pitchers down the stretch of the regular season. J.A. Happ, Bud Norris, and Wandy Rodriguez are each receiving significant opportunities to gain experience during the final two months of the season.

As a result, the Astros are currently enjoying their most successful month of the season. While the overall pitching numbers of Houston may not be as flashy as San Diego’s (the Astros have a 3.73 team ERA in August, which ranks tenth in the majors), the Astros have allowed two or fewer runs in eight of their last nine wins. Their starting pitching has been stellar this month, as Houston’s starters have the major league’s fourth best team xFIP at 3.74 in August and the ML’s sixth best team FIP at 3.46. With the considerable improvement, the Houston Astros are preparing to contend for the NL Central in 2011 and surprise the rest of the league, similar to what San Diego is doing this season.

Overall, for whatever reason, the Astros and Padres have considerably improved by trading their aces. The starting pitching statistics for both of these teams has been far better without their ace. Granted, the Astros have only played 25 games since dealing Oswalt, so they will need to have sustained success before they can experience a Padre-like turnaround. Most baseball writers projected San Diego to be out of playoff contention before the all-star break. Not only have the Padres exceeded expectations, they are primed to make a run at the World Series this year, as San Diego has the overall pitching to succeed in the postseason. Houston can soon follow San Diego’s path next year, as it continues to develop the young starters. Trading away aces may not always be a bad thing after all.