Friday, May 23, 2014

LA Kings a Postseason Juggernaut

The Los Angeles Kings (YES THE LOS ANGELES KINGS!) have the most playoff victories in the league over the past three seasons.  These same Los Angeles Kings who did not reach the playoffs from 2002 through 2009 and who only made it out of the first round once (reached second round in 2001) from 1993 (when they reached the Stanley Cup Finals, losing to the Montreal Canadiens) until the 2012 playoffs.  From the 2012 postseason until now, they have won EIGHT postseason series, which is only three fewer than they had won in their entire franchise history prior to 2012.  Just how have they done it?

It all starts with Jonathan Quick, arguably the most talented goaltender in the NHL.  After allowing an average of over three goals per game during his first two postseasons in 2010 and 2011, Quick absolutely dominated the 2012 postseason, allowing only a staggering 1.46 goals per game in 20 contests.  That season, the Kings lone Stanley Cup win in its franchise history, the Kings entered the postseason as the eighth seed.  All they did was go 8-1 against the top two seeds in the West, Vancouver and St. Louis, and then go 8-3 against the third-seeded Phoenix Coyotes and New Jersey Devils to win it all.  In the 16-4 postseason run, Quick posted three shutouts and only allowed 29 goals in 20 games.

Quick has also fared admirably well in these past two seasons, as he has led the Kings to the conference finals for a third straight season this year (second straight against the Chicago Blackhawks in the Conference Finals).  Quick posted a 1.86 GAA in the 2013 postseason, even with a subpar defense in front of him, as he posted numerous spectacular saves throughout last year's run.  In fact, the Kings are the ONLY team in the last three years to have allowed an average of under two goals per game in a single postseason.  They did it twice.  Great goaltending will always give you a chance to win and Quick has been incredibly elite during the biggest stage.

In addition to Quick, the Kings have had exceptional veteran play that has allowed them to win several big games in the past three years.  The Kings have been an 8-seed, 5-seed, and a 6-seed in the past three years; they have had to begin all but one series on the road in the past three postseasons.  That has not deterred this team one bit.  In 2012, the Kings won their first TEN road games and only lost Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals in New Jersey.  While they struggled on the road last postseason, they still managed to win Game 5 in St. Louis, which pulled the series in LA's favor (Kings went on to win in 6).  This postseason, they have won two Game 7's on the road against two of the best regular season teams this year, San Jose and Anaheim.  In the San Jose series, the Kings came back from a 3-0 series deficit to win the series, only the fourth time that has ever happened in this sport.

The frontline features a balanced and experienced scoring attack and have received scoring contributions from multiple lines.  This year, the acquisition of Marian Gaborik has elevated the offensive prowess of the Kings and given them added playmaking skills.  He's featured in the top line with Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown; the second line includes Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter, and Tyler Toffoli; the third line plays Trevor Lewis, Jarret Stoll, and Justin Williams; and the final line has Dwight King, Mike Richards, and Kyle Clifford.  In all, they have the luxury of playing FOUR game-changing centers in Kopitar, Carter, Stoll, and Richards, who combine experience with great puck-handling abilities.  Each of the four centers have played with the Kings for the past three postseasons and each player has at least seven years of experience.  That has provided great depth and leadership for the team.

Drew Doughty has done an excellent job over the past few seasons of leading the backline and Quick's excellence has allowed him to take more chances on the ice.  Doughty has logged over 27 minutes of ice time per game, along with line-mate Jake Muzzin, as the Kings defensemen have done an excellent job of leading the special teams units on the ice.  Already this postseason, the Kings have scored 13 power play goals, including two in Wednesday's 6-2 drubbing over Chicago.

Overall, the Kings are poised to make yet another Stanley Cup run this season thanks to their combination of Quick and the experience in front of him.  When they score first, they are incredibly difficult to beat and this group is one of the most resilient teams in the history of the league.  They have won SIX elimination games already this postseason and won every game of the San Jose series by at least three goals.  Los Angeles has won each of their Game 7's by a four-goal margin.  Needless to say, this team rises up when the stakes are highest, as Los Angeles has proven to be a remarkable postseason force.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Pacers Bench Killing Them Thanks to Vogel

Last year, the Pacers bench had the following players in uniform during the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami:
Tyler Hansbrough, Sam Young, Jeff Ayres, Ian Mahinmi, Ben Hansbrough, DJ Augustin, Orlando Johnson, Gerald Green.  
No real offensive punch and as a result, the Pacers decided to only keep Mahinmi out of all the bench castoffs.  In last season's series, Miami's bench outscored Indiana's bench in every game, which ended up being the difference in the seven-game series.

Indiana did not know it at the time, but they missed a golden opportunity to develop Augustin, Hansbrough and Green, who ended up being legitimate players this season for the Bulls and Suns, respectively.  Augustin averaged 13.1 points, 4.4 assists, and made nearly two three-pointers per game for an offensively challenged Chicago team.  You think the Pacers could have used his services this season? Green, the 12th man for Indiana last season, had a career year under Jeff Hornacek in Phoenix, averaging 16 points and becoming the best defender on the most improved team in the league.  Hansbrough was the first big man off the bench in Toronto and was a big reason why the Raptors surged towards a three-seed, the first time they have reached the playoffs since the Bush administration. Last year, neither Green, Hansbrough, or Augustin could find the floor and when they did, they could not provide the same level of effectiveness they displayed this year.

To revamp their second unit, the Suns brought in Luis Scola from Phoenix (in the Gerald Green trade), CJ Watson from Brooklyn, and traded for Evan Turner midseason for Danny Granger.  Donnie Walsh and Larry Bird, the two masterminds in Indiana's front office, believed this would propel them over their archrival Miami, who had knocked them out the previous two postseasons.  Both the Pacers and Heat were the class of the East all season and are matching up in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second straight year.  Did they really improve their single weakness last season, the bench?

In a word, NO. They may have actually regressed this unit, and this is a shame because Indiana presents a matchup nightmare for Miami and have arguably the best starting five in the league: George Hill, Lance Stevenson, Paul George, David West, and Roy Hibbert.  However, Turner has been an absolute BUST, making a watered down Danny Granger more valuable than ever.  He has not played a single minute this series.  Watson has been serviceable, but he is extremely limited on both ends with his undersized frame and lack of athleticism.  He did not score a single point in 13 minutes last night.  Scola put up career lows this season for the Pacers, and his strengths have NOT played well in coach Frank Vogel's system.  Prior to this season, Scola averaged double-digits in points and played at least 24 minutes per game.  He has achieved career lows in pretty much every major area in Indiana, averaging a paltry 17 minutes per game and averaging under 10 points and five rebounds for the first time in his career.

Miami is small on the frontline and Indiana has a clear advantage in all five positions with their length and strength.  Stevenson is a big 2 guard, George has a 7-foot, 4-inch wingspan at the 3, and Hibbert and West are bruisers down low.  This lineup has given fits to Miami over the past three years and has outscored the Heat by over 4.3 points per game when they are on the court together.  They have now played multiple years with this group.

However, like last year, the bench has once again shown its inefficiencies on the court.  EVERY member of the bench had a MINUS +/- differential in Tuesday's Game 2 and while every member of the Pacers starting unit was PLUS double-digits in Game 1, the bench had all but one player who had a negative differential on the court.  In fact, in Game 2's defeat by a mere four points, Miami's bench outscored Indiana's bench 20-9, meaning the Pacers starters, like in Game 1, outscored the Heat starters (the Big 3, Haslem, Chalmers) by seven points.  While Indiana jumped out to an early eight-point lead in the first eight minutes of the game, Norris Cole and Chris Andersen, two of Miami's bench mob, provided a major spark, especially on the defensive end, to get the Heat back in the game.  Cole and Andersen played all of the crunch time minutes for the Heat as Miami coach Erik Spoelstra played the hot hand.  When was the last time an Indiana bench player played meaningful minutes at the end of the game?

Indiana got away with their lack of depth in the first two rounds simply because of the talent disparity.  They cannot expect the starters to bring out maximum energy every single night when they play 40+ grueling minutes each game in the playoffs.  In the previous series, the starters scored 93 out of a possible 95 points in a Game 4 comeback victory in Washington.  The starting five literally played the entire second half.  No wonder they were blown out in Game 5 in that series, because they expended so much energy just to win Game 4.

When Chalmers, Bosh, Wade, or LeBron have an off night, usually someone on the bench, whether it be Ray Allen, Cole, Andersen, Battier, Haslem, or even Michael Beasley, will come in and provide a spark plug.  When Indiana's starters have an off night, like George's shooting woes or West's foul trouble in Game 2, they cannot rely on anyone to come in and boost the team.

I believe these issues indeed reflect on coach Frank Vogel and his stubbornness, since Green, Hansbrough and Augustin went on to have a quality season this season a year after leaving Indiana.  This was Don Nelson's, the winningest regular season coach in NBA history, single greatest weakness as a coach and the reason he never won a championship during his illustrious coaching career.  Nelson almost never trusted the bench and continuously overplayed his starters to a point where they wore out at the end of the season and postseason.  Indiana's starters broke down at the end of this regular season, as shown by their losing record in the final 30 games of the season, and have not displayed the same intensity as the beginning of the season, when they started 39-11 through 50 games.

Vogel has a much shorter leash with his bench and because he did not expose them to many crunch time minutes in the regular season, and four of the five Pacer starters averaged over 36 minutes per game.  This mostly affected the post players, especially Hibbert and West, because they expose their bodies on a nightly basis to tough physical play.  No wonder Hibbert has had several subpar games this postseason.  He has worn out throughout the course of this season, and he cannot bring his 7-foot, 2-inch, 290-pound body to play at his high level every single night, especially during the postseason.  Hibbert has averaged UNDER five points in Indiana's six losses this postseason and nearly 13 points in the team's nine wins.  As he goes, so does the team.

For the second straight year, Indiana's bench has underperformed in the big stage and instead of blaming the players, I put the onus on the coach.  How can three quality players suddenly have porous seasons in Indiana one year, then put up very respectable numbers the next year in a different uniform? How can a power forward averaging 13 points and 7 rebounds for his CAREER put up his career worst numbers by a mile in Indiana?  How can Evan Turner, former number 2 overall pick, who has played well on both ends of the court in Philadelphia not even find the court in Indiana?

This has been a recurring trend for multiple years, and it's time Vogel realize that he needs to trust and develop his bench through consistent play if Indiana were to ever win a championship.  Sure, he is a tremendous X's and O's coach, like Don Nelson was throughout his career.  He has achieved great regular season success but like Nelson, may never win a championship with this coaching style.  By only trusting five guys over the past two years, the Pacers have forced their starting lineup to carry the burden every single night and with a grueling postseason, this formula is not a recipe for success.

Sure, Miami may boast three superstar-caliber players in its starting five with James, Wade, and Bosh.  However, they have won their past two championships and are on the verge of reaching a fourth straight NBA Finals because of their depth.  Look at the past two NBA Finals, who is raining all of big three-pointers in some key decisive games? Mike Miller and Ray Allen, two veterans off the BENCH.  Indiana has its fair share of veterans off the bench too with talent and experience, and the front office has done an admirable job of building a championship-quality team.  Indiana just does not trust its full system unlike their opponents in Miami.  There's only one man to blame for that: Frank Vogel.  

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

KING HENRIK!!

Just a year ago from today, New York Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist wanted out of the Big Apple. Even with a wealth of talent on the wings (Ryan Callahan, Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello, Carl Hagelin, Ryan Clowe), the Rangers could not muster any goals and had to rely on Henrik's brilliance to bail them out.  In fact, Lundqvist essentially single-handedly beat the Capitals in the first round last year, only allowing one goal in the final three games of the seven-game series.  In the ensuing series against the Bruins, the Rangers were outshot in all but one game (allowed 30+ shots in every game of the series), as the Bruins ousted the Rangers in five games.

Lundqvist could not stand to bear that style of play anymore, as he entered his contract year prior to the 2013-2014 season.  Even though the team achieved regular season success (best in the East in 2012), New York was repeatedly exposed in the postseason.  They underachieved in the 2012 postseason, needing seven games to beat the 8th-seeded Senators and 7th-seeded Capitals before losing in six to the 6th-seeded Devils.  Lundqvist could not play for Coach John Tortorella much longer, as his aggressive coaching style went against many of the team's finesse strengths.  The Rangers fired Tortorella after the 2013 postseason and went on to hire former Canucks coach Alain Vigneault, who led Vancouver to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2011.

This provided hope and belief to the organization, and Lundqvist was sold on the future of the team.  He signed a seven-year/$59.5 million contract in December, essentially guaranteeing that he will retire a Ranger.  That contract has turned out to be a BARGAIN for the Rangers.  Holy cow, where would the Rangers be without King Henrik??

Currently, the Rangers have won five straight postseason games and are arguably in the midst of their best play in the past 20 years, since their last Cup in in 1994.  Lundqvist has been an absolute machine these playoffs, willing New York to Game 7 wins against the state of Pennsylvania.  Through Monday's games, the Rangers have allowed the FEWEST goals per game in the league despite playing three potent offenses in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Montreal. Jeez, wonder why?

Not only has Lundqvist allowed the fewest goals per game in these playoffs, he's done it despite facing some ridiculous scoring chances.  This was never more evident than at the end of the Pittsburgh series and the momentum has carried on to the Conference Finals against Montreal.  Lundqvist has not surrendered a power play goal since Game 2 of the Penguins series, and over the last three games against Pittsburgh, Lundqvist only allowed one goal each in the final three games after the Rangers fell behind 3-1 in the series.  Also, the Penguins DOMINATED puck possession, especially in the final two games of that series, when they were looking for the equalizers.  Lundqvist remained tough, not allowing a SINGLE goal in the final period of Games 6 and 7.

The Penguins outshot the Rangers in every period of Game 7, including 13 each in the final two periods, and had an array of scoring chances in front of the net by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, and Chris Kunitz.  Lundqvist did not flinch and ended up stopping 102 of the final 105 shots he faced in the series. This was against arguably the most potent front line in all of hockey, and he bailed out his defense from missed assignments numerous times that gave the Penguins odd-man opportunities.  After winning four elimination games this postseason, Lundqvist improved to 10-2 in his career in elimination games. Want more? He won an NHL-record FIFTH Game 7, all in the past three years.

The Rangers have many things going in their favor as they took a 2-0 lead in East Finals against the Canadiens, winning both games on the road.  They have rallied behind Martin St. Louis, who is mourning the loss of his mother, and won the final couple games against the Penguins in St. Louis's honor.  Montreal goaltender Carey Price is out for the series with a lower leg injury.  Entering the series, this was primed to be a rematch of the goalies from the 2014 Gold Medal Game in Sochi.  Without Price, the Canadiens will need to generate more offensive punch from their defense and turnovers.

They actually did that in Game 2, generating 41 shots on net compared to New York's 30 shots.  However, Lundqvist saved all but one shot and did not allow a goal in the final 53 minutes of the game.

Amidst one of the better offensive stretches in the season, the Rangers now look near unbeatable in this series and are now primed to reach the Cup Finals for the first time since 1994.  However, even if the offense reverts back to mediocrity, they can always rely on the one piece that has gotten them this far: Henrik Lundqvist.  He has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down and he has proven time and time again that he plays his best when the stakes are highest.  If New York ends up winning it all, the Rangers will need to make room for a statue of Lundqvist, no matter what he does the remainder of his career.  Until that point, let's all sit back and enjoy the goaltending clinic that Lundqvist is putting together against the best competition. All hail King Henrik.

Monday, May 19, 2014

Game 1 Beatdown Exactly What the Heat Needed

After giving up 107 points to the offensively challenged Pacers, who had not scored that much since February 25 against the Lakers, many discussions in the national media involved the matchup nightmares Indiana posed to Miami.  The Heat are too old, the Heat cannot contain Indiana's bigs, Bosh disappears against the Pacers, and Indiana's home-court advantage will be too much for the Heat to overcome.  Some of these points are valid, but last time I checked, somebody has to beat LeBron James and the Miami Heat four times out of seven to win a series.  Only one team, the 2011 Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, has accomplished that feat out of 14 opportunities.

This marks the third straight year the Heat and Pacers have squared off in the playoffs, and the Pacers have been in a position every year to dethrone the Heat.  In 2012, Indiana clobbered Miami by 19 points in Game 3 to put themselves up 2-1 in the series.  They dominated the Heat defensively, holding Miami to a paltry 75 points each in Games 2 and 3, as Miami had to play without their best big man Chris Bosh for the remainder of the series.  How did the Heat respond? Like legendary champs.  LeBron played arguably one of his three best playoff games, with 40 points, 18 rebounds, and 9 assists and D-Wade added 30 points.  70 points from the 1-2 punch.  Miami won by 8 points in Game 4 and never looked back, winning Game 5 by 32 points and then Game 6 in Indiana by 12.  Simply, Indiana's cockiness woke up the sleeping giant, as Miami scored over 100 points in the final three games of the series.

Last year, Indiana was in a similar position.  They outplayed the Heat in the first two games in Miami, splitting the results in two exceptional clashes.  The front-line of Indiana, like the previous year, posed severe matchup issues with Miami, as Roy Hibbert, David West, and Paul George obliterated the Heat down low (averaged 68 points per game in first 2 games of series).  Heading to Indiana, Miami was on the ropes yet again and once again they delivered with a resounding performance in Game 3, winning by 18 points.  Miami went on to win every decisive game in the series in convincing fashion, as they won Game 5 by 11 and Game 7 by 23.

Indiana is not the only team to wilt against Miami in the playoffs.  In fact, whenever the Heat have lost Game 1 during the Big 3 Era (since 2010-2011), they have gone on to win every remaining game of that series to win 4-1.  That's a 16-2 record following a Game 1 loss in the playoffs (2011 against Chicago, 2012 vs. OKC, 2013 vs Chicago, 2013 vs San Antonio).

Now, past performances do NOT dictate future outcomes.  We live in the present, and Indiana still has a favorable position.  Miami is another year older, and there's a reason why no one has reached FOUR consecutive NBA Finals since 1984-87 Boston Celtics.  The playoffs are grueling and coming back to this same position year-after-year takes a toll after a while.  The 2003 and 2011 Lakers could not make it past the second round in their quest for four consecutive Finals appearances, each time having been blown out in the clinching game.  The Spurs, arguably the most consistent team this century, have NOT even reached back-to-back Finals appearances in the Tim Duncan era.  The Heat have a chance to reach immortality if they make it past this round, but they have shown signs of aging this season.

Furthermore, Indiana plays a brand of basketball that matches up well with Miami.  Hibbert and West down low gives Miami fits, as Bosh has a difficult time dealing with Hibbert's strengths and James is not accustomed to guarding post players for most of the game.  If Miami puts two bigs against Hibbert and West (combination of Bosh, Haslem, and Andersen), it compromises their strengths on the offensive end.  LeBron labored through most of yesterday's game and by his standards, had a very subpar game on the defensive end.  Spoelstra must make some key personnel decisions heading into the next game and the rest of the series (starting Battier, playing Haslem more minutes, playing Andersen more minutes while limiting Bosh's minutes).

They Pacers played all regular season long to get home-court advantage against the Heat.  They finally have it and have beaten Miami five straight times on their home court, dating back to last year's postseason.  Indiana always ups their level of energy and plays their best basketball against Miami, who has knocked them out in each of the past two years.  They feel their time is coming and battled through some difficult stages just to get to this point.

However, the Heat play their best basketball when they are under the most pressure.  Look no further than the 2nd round against Brooklyn.  In Game 4, following an offensive explosion by the Nets, LeBron scored FORTY-NINE points as the Heat withstood a valiant Brooklyn effort and beat the Nets by six points.  That was the first glimpse of adversity the Heat went through this postseason, after they swept Charlotte in five games.  As they well know, no road to the championship is easy and there will be bumps and bruises along the way.  Now, they face a series deficit for the first time since last year's NBA Finals.

As long as they have the best player in the world and a rapidly improving Wade, who has started to show signs that he has returned to his original All-Star form, they will always have a chance to win every game.  Wade scored 27 and 28 points in the past two games, and this is the healthiest his knee has looked in a couple years.

The Heat have had too easy of a road up to this point.  Throughout the regular season and even at many times this postseason, they have looked bored and disinterested.  They won multiple games against Charlotte and the beginning of the Brooklyn series solely through their talent.  After receiving a wake-up call, I expect both Wade and LeBron to have yet another postseason masterpiece and willing the Heat to a Game 2 win.  Great players rise up under the most adverse circumstances, and Wade and LeBron have continually shown their abilities to bounce back after defeats.  I do not expect anything different this time around, especially against an opponent they absolutely hate.

Friday, May 16, 2014

Sabean the Best at Spotting Cheap Veteran Talent

No team since the 1996-2000 New York Yankees has won three World Series in a five-year span. Those Yankee teams won four times in five years and will live in baseball lore as one of the greatest dynasties ever.  Prior to that, the last teams to win it all three times in five years were the 1972-1974 Oakland Athletics (3-peat) and the 1950s Yankees, who dominated baseball at a time when extremely few teams had the resources to compete with the juggernaut.

This millenium, baseball has had more parity than ever.  Between 2000-2009, eight different teams won the World Series and 15 different teams have reached the World Series since 2000.  Needless to say, advanced player scouting and development and the growth of sabermetrics have significantly expanded the talent pool around Major League Baseball.  Low revenue teams such as the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics can compete with the financial powers through excellent drafting and player development.  In fact, despite having two of the bottom five payrolls on an annual basis, the Rays and A's have reached the postseason more this millenium than the Cubs and Mets, two perennial high-spending teams until this year.  Money does not guarantee success in baseball and due to the daily grind of the 162-game season and greater competition, it has been increasingly difficult to sustain success.

This year, the San Francisco Giants have the chance to accomplish something no team has done since the late 90s Yankees; win three championships in five years.  Sure, the team has gone through some horrendous years, only reaching two postseasons since 2003; in 2010 and 2012.  They have made great use of their playoff experiences, winning BOTH times they reached mid-October baseball.  Isn't that the purpose of playing, to win it all? The Giants have now won more in the past three years than the Braves have since 1990, even though Atlanta has reached the playoffs 20 times in that span.  What makes the Giants so dangerous in the postseason? VETERAN EXPERIENCE!

Giants General Manager Brian Sabean has been an expert at spotting cheap veteran talent.  Sure, he may have some tremendous deficiencies when it comes to sabermetrics and the draft.  But Sabean sure as hell knows how to spot experienced talent and most importantly, bring in good clubhouse guys with excellent leadership.  Let's take a look at some of the under-the-radar acquisitions Sabean has made that have propelled the Giants to the top of the mountain.

First, in 2010, Sabean signed first baseman Aubrey Huff to a very modest one-year, $3 million deal. Huff was coming off a season, where he mostly played Designated Hitter for both Baltimore and Detroit.  Moving to the National League, Huff needed to play a position. Sabean recognized that Huff could split time between first base and the outfield, knowing that his bat was a much-needed asset in the lineup.  Huff finished the season with a career year and seventh in the MVP voting; he scored 100 runs and had an .891 OPS, a scintillating year in the middle of the lineup.  Sabean also signed Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria, who made up the left side of the infield.  Uribe signed for less then $4 Million and Renteria made $9 million.  Both men came up HUGE in the playoffs; Uribe hit the game-winning home run in Game 6 of the 2010 NLCS while Renteria hit the game-winning home run in the clinching game of the World Series. Renteria won the 2010 World Series MVP.  Two other midseason moves Sabean made were getting Pat Burrell and Cody Ross at the trade deadline.  Burrell had a .872 OPS while playing for San Francisco and Ross had a monster NLCS and won MVP of that series.  Lastly, Sabean picked up a crucial, lefty specialist at the deadline: Javier Lopez.  Lopez became a key bullpen weapon and was nearly unhittable against lefty batters, including Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Josh Hamilton in the playoffs.  Sabean completely revamped the team in the 2010 year and was able to mix a group of castoffs and turn them into a winner.

Because many players on the 2010 Giants team were on their final legs, the Giants could not retain most of the players.  They needed to completely revamp their entire team and Sabean did just that with added veteran presence.  Prior to the 2012 season, Angel Pagan agreed to a one-year, $4.85 million to play center field.  Pagan gave the team exactly what it needed: a presence at the top of the lineup with his combination of speed and ability to get on base.  He did just that and proved to be a bargain with his exceptional defense and .338 OBP with 29 stolen bases.  Starting Pitcher Ryan Vogelsong, out of the league in 2006, completely revamped his career with the Giants and became yet another ace in San Francisco's dynamic rotation.  Making less than $8 million combined in 2011-2012, Vogelsong made 60 regular season starts, posted career highs in strikeouts and innings pitched in his age 34 season. He went 3-0 in 4 postseason starts with a 1.09 ERA.

Furthermore, two midseason acquisitions propelled the Giants to the top of the mountain in 2012. First, Marco Scutaro, acquired midseason by Colorado, batted a scintillating .362 as a 2-hitter for the Giants in 2012.  He won the 2012 NLCS MVP and had the game-winning hit in the final game of the World Series.  Hunter Pence, a trade bait for the underachieving Philadelphia Phillies, filled another void in right field for San Francisco.  While he struggled at the plate, Pence came through with clutch hits for the club in the postseason and most importantly, provided an incredible leadership presence for the team. The Giants won SIX elimination games in the 2012 postseason and Pence was seen leading some crazy cheers and keeping the team loose during the difficult times.  Pence has broken through in both 2013 and this season and will be a major part of the team's near future.

This season, Sabean has worked his magic yet again.  Despite having a nearly $100 million less payroll than the divisional rival Los Angeles Dodgers, Sabean has managed to fill a deep, experienced lineup and rotation by bringing in some veterans.  First, he replaced Barry Zito with Tim Hudson; Hudson signed a 2-year, $23 million contract this past offseason, which is will below his market value.  At 38, Hudson has shown no ill-effects from his gruesome leg injury and has posted a 4-2 record in 9 starts with a 2.09 ERA.  He has been San Francisco's best starter this season.  Michael Morse, a talented yet underachieving player in Washington, signed a one-year, $6 million contract this offseason. That has proved to be a major bargain as well, as Morse has had a career year at the plate.  He already has 10 home runs and a .870 OPS this season and has provided pop to an ever-increasing dangerous lineup.

Through May 15, the Giants have the best record in baseball at 27-15 and are playing better than they ever did at this time of the year during their two World Series seasons.  Playing in front of sellout crowds the past 4+ full seasons/postseasons, Sabean has rewarded the fan loyalty by spending the money on affordable and valuable veterans.  Multiple experienced players on an annual basis have grossly outperformed their contracts and that is largely due to the atmosphere in the Giants clubhouse.  There is tremendous leadership and ego-free players in the Giants organization, which has allowed many of these players to play at their peak with this organization.  Collectively, they have played admirably well for each other despite a large roster turnover each year within the organization.  Strong pitching and organizational stability have contributed to their success.

The stellar play has the Giants on the verge of accomplishing something special this season.  This may be the most complete team that Sabean has ever put together, as the Giants have displayed strong starting pitching, hitting, and bullpen this season despite some injuries to some key players (Marco Scutaro, Brandon Belt).  This is no fluke; Sabean is a master at spotting and bringing in veteran talent at below-market value.  He understands the value of a strong veteran presence in the clubhouse, which has helped the Giants overcome some incredible adversity over the past World Series wins.  Six straight elimination wins in the 2012 postseason, overcoming the loss of Melky Cabrera midway through 2012, and defeating a more talented Philadelphia team in the 2010 NLCS show the team is mentally strong enough to overcome obstacles.  Sabean knows how to put together a winning combination on the field, a team that will refuse to die.  Sure, he has made his share of bone-headed moves during his tenure, but you cannot discredit the constant success he has had in bringing in veteran players.  Bravo Brian Sabean.


Thursday, May 15, 2014

Kerr a Risky Hire for Warriors

Don't get me wrong, I love Steve Kerr as a broadcaster.  He speaks his mind as well as anyone in the industry and his eloquent, lucid, and fluent diction make him very relatable for the basketball audience. He knows how to call a game and certainly understands the game of basketball from an outsider's point of view.  I stress the word "outsider" because I believe his strengths belong in the broadcaster's booth alongside Marv Albert, NOT on the sideline.

Unlike Mark Jackson, who had no prior experience working with a team outside of his playing days, Kerr spent multiple years as a General Manager for the Phoenix Suns from 2007-2010.  Preceding his official hire, Kerr stepped into one of the most enviable positions in the NBA.  The Suns had one of the most marketable and explosive teams in the league led by Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire.  They led the league in scoring for three straight years (averaged nearly 110 points per game) and had one of the most unorthodox teams ever created.

Their style of play was PERFECT for Mike D'Antoni's system.  Explosive, quick, durable guards such as Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa; terrific shooters like James Jones, Eddie House; one of the best two-way forwards in the league in Shawn Marion; and arguably the most explosive big man in the game in Amare Stoudemire.  They mixed in some great defenders in Raja Bell and versatile big men Kurt Thomas and Boris Diaw.  Everything lined up brilliantly for that team, especially during the regular season.

Unfortunately, they ran into some TERRIBLE luck in the two postseasons prior to Kerr's arrival.  In 2006, they advanced to the Western Conference Finals DESPITE losing Amare Stoudemire to a gruesome microfracture knee injury, which caused him to miss most of the season.  They still put up a valiant fight and lost to Dallas in six games.  In 2006-2007, the Suns coasted to 61 wins and had two different 15+ game winning streaks during the season.  They matched up with arch-rival San Antonio in the second round with home-court advantage.  That series ended up changing the complexion of the franchise, as Phoenix dealt with some of the worst luck ever.

In Game 1, MVP Steve Nash needed to leave the game because of a bloody nose after banging heads with Tony Parker.  The bleeding never stopped until the game ended, and the Suns ended up losing by five points with Nash having to sit out the majority of the final quarter.  After handily winning Game 2, the Suns lost Game 3, which was later known as the "Tim Donaghy Game".  San Antonio shot 36 free throws and three key Suns starters were in heavy foul trouble throughout the game, largely due to "ticky-tac fouls". Phoenix lost the game and Donaghy later admitted that he rigged the game and he is now sitting in jail.  Late in Game 4, which the Suns won with a furious fourth quarter, Robert Horry committed an unnecessary flagrant foul by the Phoenix bench, which caused Diaw and Stoudemire to take two steps onto the court.  Even though they did NOT enter the confrontation, they broke the rules by stepping onto the court and were suspended for a pivotal Game 5.  The Suns lost Games 5 and 6 to lose the series.  Horrible luck.

They proved, though, that their style of play worked and if it weren't for an injury to their superstar forward and facing some excruciating circumstances, they could have at least won one championship.  Phoenix had an identity and most importantly, players who perfectly fit their up-tempo style of play.  Then, Kerr became stubborn and had to break it all up so he could get players that fit "his system".

Here are some of the players Kerr dumped during his stay in Phoenix:
- Shawn Marion (traded to Miami for Shaquille O'Neal)
- Boris Diaw and Raja Bell (traded to Charlotte for Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley)
- Shaquille O'Neal (for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic)
- did NOT re-sign Tim Thomas

Suddenly, the Suns lost their identity and gradually compromised the strengths of Nash and Stoudemire, who represented the core of the team.  Stoudemire became increasingly restless and eventually left the team.  D'Antoni could not bear to withstand the difference in philosophies between his coaching style and management, and he left following the 2008 playoffs.  The ensuing years marked the beginning of the demise of the Suns.  They got ousted in five games in the first round in 2008. They did NOT make the playoffs in 2009.  With one final push and a veteran-laden supporting cast, the Suns somehow made it to the Conference Finals in 2010, Kerr's final year with the team.

Kerr left the team in shambles by the time he left, and Phoenix has not reached the playoffs since that 2010 season.  He completely dismantled a great and marketable product, even though the team he inherited was repeatedly on the precipice of winning a ring.  It is exceptionally difficult to win a championship in this league and it often takes an inordinate amount of luck.  As the Stockton/Malone Jazz, Gary Payton's Sonics, or the current Oklahoma City Thunder.  Teams consistently great but just falling short and losing to other great teams in the playoffs.  Some great teams win, others do not.  Heck, the 2011 Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki's only championship, was not as stacked as some of the other teams he had been on earlier in that decade.

The current Golden State Warriors group has extremely similar qualities to the Suns team that Kerr obtained in 2007: a dynamic point guard in Steph Curry, an elite defender in Andre Iguodala, a great shooter in Klay Thompson, emerging forwards in Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green, and an assortment of frontcourt players.  Curry, like Nash, is at his best in the open court and in a free-flowing offense.  Golden State had one of the WORST half-court offenses in the league, which was Mark Jackson's Achilles Heel as a coach and a reason for his departure.  Judging by Kerr's past in evaluating players, is he REALLY any different than Jackson?

Sure, like Jackson, he will likely do a great job of relating to the players on the team.  He has a modern day mindset and can probably get the team to shoot better than they did under Jackson.  However, questions remain about his ability to lead a team, and if he can maximize the strengths of his players.  If he acts stubborn like he did in Phoenix, the Warriors will go back to becoming a laughing-stock of the league.  What a damn shame that would be, since Golden State has been an extremely watchable and marketable team over these last couple of years.  I certainly hope Kerr proves me wrong.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Clippers Have Only Themselves to Blame for Game 5 Choke

In the aftermath of an unprecedented collapse, Clippers players and owners continuously blamed NBA officials for the loss, with Doc Rivers going as far as saying "We Got Robbed".  Sure, he has a point; the ball went off Reggie Jackson's arms, which allowed OKC to retain possession of the ball with under 15 seconds left.  Was there a foul on Matt Barnes on the controversial play? Perhaps. Nonetheless, Doc Rivers is right in blaming someone for the loss; he just picked the wrong people.

Rivers coached an excellent game on Tuesday night. His players came ready to play and thoroughly outplayed the Thunder for the first 45 minutes of the game.  However, the team forgot about the final three minutes of the game and absolutely collapsed on both ends of the court in the waning moments of the game.  He just be incensed at his players, NOT the officials.  Only sore losers find excuses the way Rivers did at the end of an epic choke. C'MON DOC.

I could not help but cringe when I saw the Clippers attempt to run out the clock when there was still plenty of time left in the game.  As a lifelong Warriors fan, I could not help but remember last year's Game 1 between the Warriors and Spurs, when the Warriors somehow blew a 16-point lead in the last four minutes of regulation.  Granted, that game went to overtime, but both games showed that teams who play "not to lose" instead of landing the knockout punch DESERVE to relinquish their opportunity.

Winning on the road is brutally difficult, especially in the playoffs.  The Clippers should have taken a page out of Washington's book yesterday (Wizards throttled the Pacers in Indiana, leading by as many as 30 in the 4th quarter).  There is no such thing as mercy in the playoffs; on the road, when you are playing well, you should be playing to humiliate and embarrass the opponent, NOT trying to hold them off.  The Clippers got that big lead by running out in transition, getting into their offense early, and moving the ball within the flow of the offense.  That allowed them to get a high percentage of quality shots throughout the game, both inside and out.

During the final four minutes of the game, the Clippers repeatedly had Chris Paul or Jamal Crawford stand and dribble the ball for the first 12-16 seconds of the 24-second shot clock in order to "waste" time.  When that happens, EVERYONE else on the floor becomes complacent and as a result, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook used that opportunity to go to the open court and get four transition baskets (and two free throws from Durant that was a result of the transition offense), which in total accounted for 11 "easy" points.  It allowed Durant, who had a horrendous shooting night (went 3-for 17 from the field up till the 4-minute mark of the game), to get going and get his shooting rhythm back.

On offense, here were the Clippers possessions in the final four minutes:
- Jamal Crawford missed 28-foot jumper (shot with 2 seconds on shot clock)
- Chris Paul missed 14-foot jumper (shot with 2.3 seconds on shot clock)
- Chris Paul missed 17-foot jumper (shot with 8 seconds on shot clock)
- DeAndre Jordan offensive foul, moving screen up TOP (happened after Paul dribbled for 10 seconds)
- Jamal Crawford missed 27-foot jumper (shot with 1 second on shot clock)
- Blake Griffin splits free throws, Big Baby offensive rebound, Chris Paul makes jumper
- Jamal Crawford Missed layup (1 second left on shot clock)
- Chris Paul turnover in backcourt
- Chris Paul turnover (with team trailing)

Blake Griffin, the best advantage the Clippers have in the series, barely touched the ball in the final four minutes.  Crawford and Paul dominated ball possession in the final minutes of the game, leading to multiple desperation shot attempts and no ball movement.  The Clippers offense, sans Blake Griffin in the post, operates best when the ball is moving and they space the floor.  When they get into their offense so late in the shot clock, they become much easier to defend because the Thunder do not have to worry about some of the corner shooters.  Paul had as many assists (14) as the entire Thunder team; however, the Clippers did not have a single assist in the final four minutes of Game 5.

The Thunder arguably have the most explosive offense in the league, with two of the most dynamic scorers in the world.  They can come back on anyone, especially when both Westbrook and Durant find their shooting stroke.  They did not combine to average 58 points per game and lead the team to the second-most wins in the league by accident.  The Clippers knew that and thought they had the game in the bag well before the final buzzer.  In the playoffs, this mindset comes back to bite you because teams are fighting for their lives.

Los Angeles has all the pressure on them now as the series shifts back west.  Paul has never made it past the second round in his decorated career, and he was largely responsible for the team's meltdown. If they do not respond by winning Game 6, the team will head into the offseason full of question marks and turmoil, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the ownership.  The players had a chance to make a statement on the road and they blew it.  They will have another chance at redemption; otherwise, a long, tumultuous offseason awaits.

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Headed Towards NBA Finals Rematch

Two of the oldest teams in the league are headed toward an epic Finals rematch from last June, as both teams continue to show why they are the class of the league.  Last year, the San Antonio Spurs coasted through the Western Conference playoffs, sweeping two series en route to The Finals, while the Heat dominated the first two rounds before outlasting the Pacers in seven games to face the Spurs.  The 2013 NBA Finals ended up as one of the most memorable championship series of all-time, with the Spurs coming within 28 seconds of winning it all.

The Spurs style of play has dominated the rest of the league since the team drafted Kawhi Leonard in 2011 prior to the lockout-shortened season.  By their standards, the team underachieved from their last championship in 2007 until they drafted Leonard in 2011, having been ousted in the first round twice (including to eighth seeded Memphis in 2011) and being swept in the second round by Phoenix in 2010.  Since Leonard arrived, the Spurs have won at least 70% of their regular season games each of the past three years, have swept four different postseason series, and have gone 32-14 in the postseason through Monday's Game 4 at Portland.

Leonard has sparked the resurgence in the team, often guarding the opposing team's best player and becoming a rapidly fearsome offensive force.  You could make a compelling MVP case for Leonard; this season, the Spurs went 8-8 without Leonard and 54-12 with him in the lineup.  San Antonio outscored opponents by over 11 points per game with him on the court.  He does an exceptional job of playing within the offense and he's field goal percentage has improved every year, culminating with a career best 52.2% this season.  Unbelievably, he has not received a SINGLE technical in his entire three-year career, despite guarding some of the most physical players in the league on a nightly basis.

Despite the team's brilliance over the past three seasons, San Antonio is still searching for its first championship since 2007, when LeBron James was still with the Cavaliers.  They blew opportunities the past two seasons.  Having a commanding 2-0 lead in the 2012 Conference Finals against OKC (and winning the first 10 games in the playoffs that year), the Spurs faded and lost the final four games of the series to the up-and-coming Thunder.  Last year, the Spurs had a five-point lead with 28 seconds left in Game 6 and allowed the Heat to miraculously come back and take the game and series.  They have put themselves in position to make another run at the Finals, with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, something they did NOT have last year.  Will they finally reach the top of the mountain this year? Time will tell, but they are extremely experienced and have some added motivation to finish the deal.

Until someone knocks them out, though, the NBA will still go through the two-time defending champion Miami Heat.  This is LeBron James's fourth year with the team and his chemistry with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh has continued to grow.  Even though the Heat have played in three straight Finals, LeBron has looked better than ever and he is making a strong case to become one of the greatest players ever.  His jump shot is now a strength and he used a wide array of post moves on his way to 49 points in a statement win in Brooklyn on Monday night.

In fact, since James joined Miami, he has played his best when the team has needed him most. First, 2011 ECF vs top-seeded Chicago, James made his final four shot attempts in Game 2 with his team trailing in the series then went on to lead an improbably comeback in Game 5, scoring the game-tying three then the ensuing go-ahead basket to send the Heat to the NBA Finals.  In Game 4 of the 2012 East Semifinals against Indiana with the team trailing 2-1, James displayed a masterpiece with 40 points, 18 rebounds, and 9 assists. The Heat went on to win the series 4-2.  In Game 6 of the 2012 ECF against his archrival Boston with the team facing elimination, James scored 45 points and grabbed 15 rebounds. In that Game 7, he followed up with 31 points and 12 rebounds, as the Heat needed James heroics to advance to the Finals.  In the 2012 NBA Finals against OKC, with the team down 1-0 in the series, James had 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists as the Heat went on to win the series 4-1.

Last season, with the series tied 2-2 in the 2013 ECF against Indiana, James erupted for 25 points in the third quarter, as the Heat blew out the Pacers.  In Game 7 of that series, it was deja vu as James scored 32 points, and the Heat won by 23 points to send Miami to a third straight Finals appearance.  The 2013 Finals were unique to James, as the team NEVER had a series lead until they won it all in Game 7.  In Games 2, 4, and 6, James had an all-time block of Tiago Splitter and two different 30-point games.  In Game 7, LeBron saved his best for last, as he connected on FIVE three-pointers en route to a 37-point effort and a second straight Finals MVP.

LeBron showed Monday night that this is still his league and someone needs to beat him four times to have a shot at the championship.  Since he joined Miami, it has only happened once in 13 opportunities; the 2011 NBA Finals, when James admittedly played the worst series of his life.  He has exponentially grown since that letdown and has become arguably the most lethal two-way player in NBA history since Michael Jordan.  As long as he's playing, Miami will always have a chance to beat anyone, even when Bosh, Wade, or the rest of the supporting casts are having off nights.  James is historically consistent.  He has scored at least 22 points in every game this postseason and has exceeded 27 points in six out of eight games.  The last time he scored under 20 points in a loss? March 12 against Brooklyn, when he "settled" for 19.

Both the Spurs and the Heat are remarkably healthy at this stage of the postseason, despite going through an arduous playoffs in 2013.  These are the two most experienced teams left in the postseason and have not shown any signs of letting up.  If they continue to play to this level through the end of this month, we could very realistically be looking at a rematch of last June's championship.  That itself would make this a historic rivalry, along the lines with the Bulls-Jazz in the late 90's and Celtics-Lakers in the 80's.  It's about time we had an NBA Finals rematch.