Cliff Lee, who the Phillies acquired from the Indians midway through the 2009 season, pitched exceptionally well during his brief stint with the Phillies. Including the 2009 playoffs, when Lee accumulated an astounding 1.67 FIP in five starts, Lee was the unquestioned ace of the Phillies staff. He was worth nearly three wins more than any other Phillies starter in 2009 (Lee had a 6.6 WAR while Hamels had a 3.8 WAR). However, despite all of Lee’s successes in leading the Phillies to a second straight World Series appearance, Philadelphia decided to trade Lee in December to the Mariners in order to acquire Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. The Phillies sent three prospects, including highly touted pitcher Kyle Drabek, to complete the trade.
From the outset of the 2010 season, the Phillies have regretted trading Lee to acquire Halladay. Sure, Halladay has performed marginally better than Lee, as Halladay has a slightly lower xFIP and a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, acquiring Halladay did not address Philadelphia’s concerns of improving the back-end of the rotation. After Halladay and Hamels, the Phillies have struggled to receive any major contributions from the third, fourth, and fifth starters. J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, and Kyle Kendrick all have an xFIP of over 4.53, which ranks in the lower half of all MLB pitchers. Sure, the Phillies offense has had a pretty rough year with a team wOBA of .328. However, the Phillies could not really do anything to bolster their offense, as they have locked up Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard for the foreseeable future.
That’s where the Phillies’ acquisition of Roy Oswalt will pay dividends all the way through 2012. Though they did give up a promising pitcher in Happ and two other prospects, the Phillies are built to win now. The core members of the team (Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jimmy Rollins) are all in the prime of their careers and are locked up long-term. These seven players and Jayson Werth, who is in a contract year, are not going to get significantly better from now until the rest of their careers. This core group only has a few more productive years remaining before they begin to plateau. Every one of their main players, sans Halladay, has appeared in a World Series with the team, so they are in no way going to attempt to rebuild.
Also, the Phillies have already invested a tremendous amount of money to several of their key players. This year, Ryan Howard just signed a 5-year/$125 million extension that will keep him in the city of Brotherly Love through 2016. Utley signed a 7-year/$85 million deal in 2007. Halladay signed a 3-year/$60 million extension that will keep him in Philadelphia through 2013. Ibanez signed a 3-year/$21 million deal in 2009. Victorino signed a 3-year/$22 million deal in 2010. In fact, the Phillies already have a $142 million payroll, and that number will continue to increase as some of these contracts begin to kick in.
Sure, Happ has a promising future ahead of him, but he has yet to develop into a quality starter. He had a 4.49 xFIP last year and does not strike out a lot of batters. His 6.3 K/9 ratio in the past two years ranks among the middle of the league. Oswalt, on the other hand, has had tremendous success throughout his career in Houston and is still in the prime of his career. Forget his 6-12 record, as Oswalt has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year. Wins and losses do not measure a pitcher’s ability, as they strictly correlate with the quality of a particular team. The Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball. This season, Oswalt has one of the best peripherals in baseball, as he has recorded a 3.45 xFIP, which ranks 10th in the MLB, and has accumulated an average of 8.37 strikeouts per nine innings. He is doing all this while pitching at Minute Maid Park, which is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball.
Thus, the switch from Minute Maid Park to Citizens Bank Park should not negatively affect him that much at all. He is anyways more of a groundball/strikeout pitcher, as he has only yielded a 32% flyball percentage in his major league career. In addition, he is extremely durable as a starter, as he has registered at least 30 starts in each of the past six seasons.
With the Phillies looking to win now, they could not have asked for a better deal to acquire Roy Oswalt. They did not need to give up Jayson Werth, who is on the last-year of his contract, so they are primed to make a third consecutive championship run. Credit GM Ruben Amaro Jr. for recognizing the mistake with the Cliff Lee deal and countering that with the acquisitions of Halladay and Oswalt. With the deal, the Phillies have arguably the best 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation. Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels can match up with anyone in the majors. Combine that with a recent surge on offense, the Phillies now have what it takes to get back to the World Series for a third straight year.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
David Stern Has Single-Handedly Destroyed the NBA
When David Stern succeeded Larry O’Brien as commissioner in 1984, the NBA was at an all-time high, both in terms of quality of competition and fan interest. Competition was fierce, as the Lakers and Celtics, led by Magic Johnson and Larry Bird, renewed the greatest rivalry in basketball. Officials encouraged physical play, which led to intense battles and more importantly, tremendous interest in the game. Players did not receive lucrative contracts, relative to modern day, so they focused more on team play rather than individual statistics. However, as soon as Michael Jordan left the NBA following the 1997-98 season, the league has progressively deteriorated, and much of the blame should be pointed to the man calling the shots, David Stern.
Although Stern has received a positive reputation amongst the people associated with the basketball industry, he has turned off basketball aficionados for some of the decisions he has made. First, he has turned the NBA from a physical, competitive league into a soft, cry-baby confederacy. Nowadays, officials call even the slightest of hand-checks fouls, so any time a player attacks the rim, he will most likely draw a foul and shoot free throws. Gone are the days when Kevin McHale can clothes-line Kurt Rambis. That famous play in the 1984 NBA Finals only drew a regular personal foul. Today, it would result in a flagrant-2 foul, an automatic ejection, and most likely, a suspension.
In the recent 2010 NBA Finals between the Celtics and Lakers, there were a combined 350 free throws shot between the two teams. 350 free throws! That is an average of 50 per game between each team. This would have never happened in the NBA glory days in the 1980’s and 90’s. To put that in perspective, the Celtics/Lakers 1984 Finals, which went seven games, featured only 155 free throw attempts. Officials can often dictate the outcomes of a number of games with the large number of foul calls.
As more fouls have been called, more players have increasingly complained to the referees. Every hand-check that is not called a foul almost always results in an argument from the player. Stern could have eliminated this problem if he did not ask his officials to call the game so tightly. If every basketball game allowed for physicality, competition would be fiercer, bitter rivalries would exist, and individuals would focus more on the team game instead of isolating themselves at every given opportunity.
In addition, Stern has always been more concerned about gaining money rather than improve the quality of the game. During the 1984-85 season, when the salary cap was first introduced, the average player salary was at $330,000, while the total cap was at $3.2 million. Granted, inflation rates have considerably increased over the past 25 years. However, since players relatively made the same amount of money for a low price, they focused on winning much more than earning individual accolades. In today’s game, the average player salary is at $5.2 million, so players often attempt to increase their scoring average and total individual statistics in order to earn a more lucrative contract. Thus, instead of using more teamwork and skill, players have become more egocentric; as a result, there are more isolation plays than ever in the modern game. Gone are the days when the Showtime Lakers, the Bad Boy Pistons, or the Michael Jordan’s Bulls entertained the basketball universe with exemplary teamwork and physical play.
With the salary cap and maximum player salaries, the NBA has become less competitive as ever. It’s why LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and a multitude of other stars have colluded to form super teams, which has eliminated the parity of the NBA. There are two major problems with the summer of 2010. First, it has again proven the notion that players are far less competitive as they were before. Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson would have NEVER attempted to form a super team because they were the ultimate competitors and wanted to dethrone each other. LeBron, Bosh, and Wade do not have that same mentality. Second and more importantly, only FOUR teams have a legitimate shot at winning the NBA championship in the 2010-11 season: Magic, Celtics, Heat, and Lakers. The other 26 teams cannot possibly compete with these four powerhouses. The competitive imbalance, from both the league and player standpoints, directly correlates with Stern’s encouragement of passive play and his sole desire of making as much money as possible.
Although Stern has received a positive reputation amongst the people associated with the basketball industry, he has turned off basketball aficionados for some of the decisions he has made. First, he has turned the NBA from a physical, competitive league into a soft, cry-baby confederacy. Nowadays, officials call even the slightest of hand-checks fouls, so any time a player attacks the rim, he will most likely draw a foul and shoot free throws. Gone are the days when Kevin McHale can clothes-line Kurt Rambis. That famous play in the 1984 NBA Finals only drew a regular personal foul. Today, it would result in a flagrant-2 foul, an automatic ejection, and most likely, a suspension.
In the recent 2010 NBA Finals between the Celtics and Lakers, there were a combined 350 free throws shot between the two teams. 350 free throws! That is an average of 50 per game between each team. This would have never happened in the NBA glory days in the 1980’s and 90’s. To put that in perspective, the Celtics/Lakers 1984 Finals, which went seven games, featured only 155 free throw attempts. Officials can often dictate the outcomes of a number of games with the large number of foul calls.
As more fouls have been called, more players have increasingly complained to the referees. Every hand-check that is not called a foul almost always results in an argument from the player. Stern could have eliminated this problem if he did not ask his officials to call the game so tightly. If every basketball game allowed for physicality, competition would be fiercer, bitter rivalries would exist, and individuals would focus more on the team game instead of isolating themselves at every given opportunity.
In addition, Stern has always been more concerned about gaining money rather than improve the quality of the game. During the 1984-85 season, when the salary cap was first introduced, the average player salary was at $330,000, while the total cap was at $3.2 million. Granted, inflation rates have considerably increased over the past 25 years. However, since players relatively made the same amount of money for a low price, they focused on winning much more than earning individual accolades. In today’s game, the average player salary is at $5.2 million, so players often attempt to increase their scoring average and total individual statistics in order to earn a more lucrative contract. Thus, instead of using more teamwork and skill, players have become more egocentric; as a result, there are more isolation plays than ever in the modern game. Gone are the days when the Showtime Lakers, the Bad Boy Pistons, or the Michael Jordan’s Bulls entertained the basketball universe with exemplary teamwork and physical play.
With the salary cap and maximum player salaries, the NBA has become less competitive as ever. It’s why LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and a multitude of other stars have colluded to form super teams, which has eliminated the parity of the NBA. There are two major problems with the summer of 2010. First, it has again proven the notion that players are far less competitive as they were before. Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson would have NEVER attempted to form a super team because they were the ultimate competitors and wanted to dethrone each other. LeBron, Bosh, and Wade do not have that same mentality. Second and more importantly, only FOUR teams have a legitimate shot at winning the NBA championship in the 2010-11 season: Magic, Celtics, Heat, and Lakers. The other 26 teams cannot possibly compete with these four powerhouses. The competitive imbalance, from both the league and player standpoints, directly correlates with Stern’s encouragement of passive play and his sole desire of making as much money as possible.
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