Phillies Hit Home Run in Acquiring Oswalt

Cliff Lee, who the Phillies acquired from the Indians midway through the 2009 season, pitched exceptionally well during his brief stint with the Phillies. Including the 2009 playoffs, when Lee accumulated an astounding 1.67 FIP in five starts, Lee was the unquestioned ace of the Phillies staff. He was worth nearly three wins more than any other Phillies starter in 2009 (Lee had a 6.6 WAR while Hamels had a 3.8 WAR). However, despite all of Lee’s successes in leading the Phillies to a second straight World Series appearance, Philadelphia decided to trade Lee in December to the Mariners in order to acquire Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. The Phillies sent three prospects, including highly touted pitcher Kyle Drabek, to complete the trade.

From the outset of the 2010 season, the Phillies have regretted trading Lee to acquire Halladay. Sure, Halladay has performed marginally better than Lee, as Halladay has a slightly lower xFIP and a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, acquiring Halladay did not address Philadelphia’s concerns of improving the back-end of the rotation. After Halladay and Hamels, the Phillies have struggled to receive any major contributions from the third, fourth, and fifth starters. J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, and Kyle Kendrick all have an xFIP of over 4.53, which ranks in the lower half of all MLB pitchers. Sure, the Phillies offense has had a pretty rough year with a team wOBA of .328. However, the Phillies could not really do anything to bolster their offense, as they have locked up Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard for the foreseeable future.

That’s where the Phillies’ acquisition of Roy Oswalt will pay dividends all the way through 2012. Though they did give up a promising pitcher in Happ and two other prospects, the Phillies are built to win now. The core members of the team (Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jimmy Rollins) are all in the prime of their careers and are locked up long-term. These seven players and Jayson Werth, who is in a contract year, are not going to get significantly better from now until the rest of their careers. This core group only has a few more productive years remaining before they begin to plateau. Every one of their main players, sans Halladay, has appeared in a World Series with the team, so they are in no way going to attempt to rebuild.

Also, the Phillies have already invested a tremendous amount of money to several of their key players. This year, Ryan Howard just signed a 5-year/$125 million extension that will keep him in the city of Brotherly Love through 2016. Utley signed a 7-year/$85 million deal in 2007. Halladay signed a 3-year/$60 million extension that will keep him in Philadelphia through 2013. Ibanez signed a 3-year/$21 million deal in 2009. Victorino signed a 3-year/$22 million deal in 2010. In fact, the Phillies already have a $142 million payroll, and that number will continue to increase as some of these contracts begin to kick in.

Sure, Happ has a promising future ahead of him, but he has yet to develop into a quality starter. He had a 4.49 xFIP last year and does not strike out a lot of batters. His 6.3 K/9 ratio in the past two years ranks among the middle of the league. Oswalt, on the other hand, has had tremendous success throughout his career in Houston and is still in the prime of his career. Forget his 6-12 record, as Oswalt has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year. Wins and losses do not measure a pitcher’s ability, as they strictly correlate with the quality of a particular team. The Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball. This season, Oswalt has one of the best peripherals in baseball, as he has recorded a 3.45 xFIP, which ranks 10th in the MLB, and has accumulated an average of 8.37 strikeouts per nine innings. He is doing all this while pitching at Minute Maid Park, which is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball.

Thus, the switch from Minute Maid Park to Citizens Bank Park should not negatively affect him that much at all. He is anyways more of a groundball/strikeout pitcher, as he has only yielded a 32% flyball percentage in his major league career. In addition, he is extremely durable as a starter, as he has registered at least 30 starts in each of the past six seasons.

With the Phillies looking to win now, they could not have asked for a better deal to acquire Roy Oswalt. They did not need to give up Jayson Werth, who is on the last-year of his contract, so they are primed to make a third consecutive championship run. Credit GM Ruben Amaro Jr. for recognizing the mistake with the Cliff Lee deal and countering that with the acquisitions of Halladay and Oswalt. With the deal, the Phillies have arguably the best 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation. Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels can match up with anyone in the majors. Combine that with a recent surge on offense, the Phillies now have what it takes to get back to the World Series for a third straight year.